Saturday, March 22, 2008

Single-Family Housing Starts Sink to a New Low

Housing starts decreased 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted 1.065 million annual rate, after rising 7.1% in January to 1.071 million, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.
Originally, Commerce reported January starts 0.8% higher, at 1.012 million. Because of the big upward revision to the January figures, February's 0.6% decline was a mixed surprise to Wall Street, with the decrease larger than expected yet the pace of construction higher than expected. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had February starts down by 0.2% to a 1.010 million annual rate from the originally reported January level of 1.012 million.
Year-over-year, housing starts during February were 28.4% below the level of construction in February 2007.
On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its index for sales of new, single-family homes held steady at 20 in March. The gauge is based on a survey of builders who were asked about prospects for sales. Analysts think a pullback in construction is necessary to better align bloated inventory of unsold homes with demand. The latest data, through January, show new-home sales had fallen by 33.9% in the past 12 months.
"The housing outlook has remained bleak," Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer said in reaction to the NAHB report Monday. "Despite builders' efforts to stimulate demand through lower prices and greater incentives, sales have continued to decline."
A key indicator in Tuesday's starts data suggested a lower level of groundbreakings in the future. Building permits fell 7.8% to a 978,000 annual rate in February. January permits slid 1.8% to 1.061 million. The pace of 978,000 was the lowest since September 1991's 974,000. Permits are a precursor to actual building.
February single-family housing starts decreased 6.7% to 707,000. Construction of housing with two or more units rose 14.4% to 358,000; within that category, groundbreakings of homes with five or more units -- or multi-family -- were 14.5% higher.
Regionally, housing starts plunged 27.7% in the Northeast. Starts were flat in the Midwest. Construction rose 3.9% in the South and 5.1% in the West.
Nationwide, an estimated 75,300 houses were actually started in February, based on figures not seasonally adjusted. An estimated 72,900 building permits were issued last month, also based on unadjusted figures.
By Brian Blackstone and Jeff Bater From The Wall Street Journal Online

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